The RRSP-vs-TFSA (and Roth-vs-Traditional) choice comes down to one thing: is your tax rate higher now or in retirement? Enter your brackets, time horizon, and return to see the after-tax value of each path and which wins.
Plan
$
%
%
yrs
%/yr
RRSP / Traditional — after-tax
$32,189
TFSA / Roth — after-tax
$25,751
Advantage of the winner
$6,438
Verdict
RRSP / Traditional wins by $6,438
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How it's calculated
RRSP/Traditional: pre-tax dollars grow, then the whole balance is taxed at your retirement rate.
TFSA/Roth: you pay tax now, then growth and withdrawals are tax-free.
Tax-deferred wins when your retirement rate is lower than today's; tax-free wins when it's higher.
If your marginal rate will be lower in retirement than today, the RRSP usually wins; if it'll be higher (or equal), the TFSA tends to win. This calculator shows the dollar difference for your numbers.
Does this work for Roth vs Traditional?
Yes — the math is identical. Treat RRSP as Traditional and TFSA as Roth.